The UK Needs Strategic Investment to Thrive in the Emerging Economy
The UK economy has long faced challenges due to insufficient investment. For 24 out of the last 30 years, Britain has reported the lowest investment levels in the G7, as highlighted by the Institute for Public Policy Research. If the UK’s investment had aligned with that of its global counterparts during this timeframe, it could have amassed nearly £2 trillion for essential developments such as hospitals, schools, factories, and clean energy initiatives.
This underinvestment hampers growth and suppresses wage increases. The UK ranks second to last in GDP and productivity growth within the G7 and sits at the bottom for average real income growth since the financial crisis. There is an urgent need for the UK to reverse these trends.
The transition to clean energy, advancements in artificial intelligence, and the evolution of global trade will demand significant financial commitment, primarily driven by the private sector.
The UK presents a highly appealing opportunity for private investment, as evidenced by the multitude of investment leaders set to participate in next Monday’s International Investment Summit. These attendees represent only a fraction of the vast sums of capital available globally. There is fierce competition among countries to attract this capital, particularly in the burgeoning sectors of the new economy.
It is essential for governments to have both sufficient fiscal resources and the flexibility to deploy them effectively. While the UK possesses the former, it lacks the latter. Current UK budget regulations, shaped by austerity measures and economic crises, can hinder vital capital investment during critical times. Global investors seek a combination of debt and deficit management alongside a commitment to investment and growth.
The ongoing discourse around new fiscal regulations is both timely and necessary. It is illogical to overlook the nation’s assets when assessing national debt, particularly as initiatives like the National Wealth Fund aim specifically to enhance national assets.
Investors recognize that businesses in capital-intensive sectors, which can only invest from current income, are at a disadvantage compared to competitors. They apply similar evaluations to governments, provided there is a level of transparency and strict discipline separating productive long-term investments from routine expenditures.
Multiple alternative methods for calculating debt are currently under consideration, each with its pros and cons. Regardless of the approach, it is crucial that the new frameworks acknowledge and reward long-term infrastructure investments, rather than being the initial budget line to face cuts during difficult periods.
When government funds are allocated to construct or acquire national assets, it is imperative that such values are accurately reflected in calculations of national debt.
Implementing these changes is vital for the government’s success in its flagship economic initiatives, including the National Wealth Fund, which seeks to stimulate private investment in critical sectors like ports, battery production, hydrogen energy, and green steel.
The proposed multibillion-pound investment in the fund has the potential to generate significant economic benefits by kickstarting investments in pivotal industries. Some of the returns will flow back to the public sector, while others will accrue to private investors, creating social value through sustainable employment in these fields.
Various elements will influence the efficacy and impact of the National Wealth Fund, but the design will be meaningless if the resources needed to bolster the nation’s financial standing are not provided.
After years of underinvestment, the UK is positioned at a critical juncture as the global economy transforms amid shifting geopolitics, the drive for net-zero emissions, and the rise of artificial intelligence.
As Ed Miliband, secretary of state for energy security, recently stated, “It’s time to move fast and build things.” To approach this correctly, there must also be a concerted effort to register the resulting value in national assets alongside liabilities and transparently communicate these valuations to UK citizens and investors.
Mark Carney is the chairman of Brookfield Asset Management and a former governor of the Bank of England.
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